What If Canada Became Part of the United States? A 2024 Electoral Scenario Analysis

The idea of Canada joining the United States might sound outlandish—like adding your super-polite neighbor’s house to your own—but let’s entertain that notion for a moment. What would it mean for America’s 2024 electoral landscape if Canada hopped the 49th parallel and became the 51st state—or even split up into multiple states?

Let’s walk through two hypothetical scenarios, complete with charts, population data, and partisan breakdowns. It’s a forward-thinking (yet totally imaginary) exercise in political arithmetic. Buckle up and check your maple syrup supply: things are about to get interesting.

Assumptions

The rest of this article makes a few assumptions. There are so many possible variables and potential permutations that these were used as a starting point. Further analyses might approach this topic differently.

1. The House of Representatives will stay at 435 members. With this assumption in place, large States such as New York, California, Texas, and Florida would lose seats in favour of Canada.
2. The current American political two-party system (primarily two party, anyway) is inherited in this hypothetical new Canadian State and that Canada does not introduce a third or fourth party into the mix.

The Current 2024 U.S. Electoral Landscape

Below is a snapshot of the 2024 electoral profile of the existing 50 states. It features state populations (based on the 2020 Census), the number of House seats, total electoral votes, how many representatives are Democrats vs. Republicans, and whether the state typically leans Red, Blue, or is a Swing state. References are provided alongside each entry.

Chart 1: United States (50 States) – 2024 Baseline

(Full table continues for all 50 states. See references at the end for detailed data.)

At this baseline, there are 538 total electoral votes: 435 for the House, 100 for the Senate, and 3 for Washington, D.C. A presidential candidate needs 270 to win.

Scenario 1: Canada Joins as One Single “Mega-State”

What if Canada just crashed the party as a 51st state? With a population of nearly 38 million, Canada would be akin to a brand-new California, complete with a hefty chunk of seats in the U.S. House.

Key Changes

1. Reapportionment
   • The House remains at 435 seats, so ~45 seats shift to Canada (based on apportionment formulas and population).
   • States like California, Texas, Florida, and New York lose multiple seats. Smaller states often lose one seat if they can (though each must retain at least one).
2. Canada’s Delegation
   • ~45 House seats + 2 Senate seats = 47 Electoral Votes (EV).
   • Strongly favors Democrats, at about 30 D to 15 R in the House delegation.
   • Canada’s new 2 Senators would be very likely Democratic as well.
3. Electoral College
   • The Senate grows from 100 to 102 (51 states × 2).
   • 435 House + 102 Senate + 3 DC = 540 total electors (270 to win remains the majority).
   • With 47 fresh electoral votes, Democrats start with a higher baseline (e.g. ~253 EV vs. 202 EV for Republicans), making it a tough climb for the GOP.

Chart 2: United States (50 States) + Canada (51st State)

(Above seat changes are approximate for illustration. For exact distribution, we’d run the census apportionment formula.)

Political Impact? The House likely swings slightly blue. The Senate would remain a tossup.

Scenario 2: Canada Splits into 10 New States by Province

Instead of forming a single mega-state, suppose each of Canada’s 10 provinces becomes its own U.S. state. That means the Union now has 60 states (50 + 10). Each new province gets:

• 2 Senators (that’s +20 total)
• House seats proportional to population (total still 435, forcing the original states to lose more seats).

New “States” in Canada

• Ontario (~14.2M): 17 House seats, 2 Senators, 19 EV, likely heavily Democratic.
• Quebec (~8.5M): 10 House seats, 12 EV, strong Democratic lean.
• British Columbia (~5.0M): 6 House seats, 8 EV, leaning Blue but some rural Red pockets.
• Alberta (~4.4M): 5 House seats, 7 EV, strongly Red (Canada’s “Texas on the prairie”).
• Manitoba (~1.4M): 2 House seats, 4 EV, true swing.
• Saskatchewan (~1.2M): 1 House seat, 3 EV, likely Red.
• Nova Scotia (~1.0M): 1 House seat, 3 EV, likely Blue.
• New Brunswick (~0.78M): 1 House seat, 3 EV, toss-up.
• Newfoundland & Labrador (~0.52M): 1 House seat, 3 EV, likely Blue.
• Prince Edward Island (~0.16M): 1 House seat, 3 EV, likely Blue.

Chart 3: U.S. (50 States) + 10 Canadian Provinces = 60 States

(Totals: ~45 House seats, 60 new Senators, 435 House seats remain fixed.)

In this scenario, Canada would potentially supply 34 Democrat Representatives and 11 Republic Representatives.

Overall Electoral College now has:

• 435 House seats + 120 Senators (60 states × 2) + 3 DC = 558 electoral votes.
• 280 needed to win.

Senate Shake-Up

• Adding 10 Canadian states = +20 Senators.
• Likely 14 new Democrats vs. 6 new Republicans, flipping any narrow GOP advantage and boosting Democrats significantly.

Senate Projections

Senate Projection: Scenario 1 (Single Mega-State)

Senate Projection: Scenario 2 (10 Provinces)

In both scenarios, the Canadian addition significantly boosts Democrats in the Senate—especially if we break Canada apart into 10 states.

Takeaways

1. Democrats Gain Ground
   Canada’s population leans center-left, so either scenario favors Democrats. In the House, they gain a new cushion of seats; in the Senate, they gain anywhere from 2 to 14 net seats.
2. Republican Strategy
   The GOP, to remain competitive, would have to broaden its tent and appeal to more socially liberal or moderate voters. (Better learn to love hockey, folks!)
3. Electoral College Math
   • Scenario 1: 540 total electoral votes, 270 to win. Democrats start with ~253.
   • Scenario 2: 558 total electoral votes, 280 to win. Democrats start even higher, with multiple new “safe Blue” states.
4. It’s All Hypothetical
   Let’s be honest: The odds of Canada actually annexing itself to the U.S. are minuscule. Canadians treasure universal health care, Tim Hortons, and not being American. That said, this exercise is a fun lens for understanding how population and political lean can impact electoral structures.
5. Forward-Thinking Fun
   The entire scenario is reminiscent of a futuristic timeline. The real lesson: demographics and population shifts matter—a lot. As the U.S. contemplates changes every decade via its Census, seeing the effect of adding 38 million people at once shows just how drastically new states could reshuffle the political map.

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References & Further Reading

Current U.S. Electoral Landscape (2024)

Below is the electoral profile of the 50 U.S. states as of the 2024 election cycle, including state populations, congressional representation, and partisan lean:

• 2020 Census – State Population and the Distribution of Electoral Votes and Representatives (TheGreenPapers.com)
• Population of Canada by Province and Territory (Wikipedia)
• Here’s how annexing Canada would change American politics (Politico 2025)

In Sum: Canada’s addition to the United States—whether as one big state or 10 smaller ones—would undeniably tip American politics left, handing the Democrats a robust advantage in both the Electoral College and the Senate. The real question is: Would Canada trade in its extra “u” in words like “colour” for a seat at the U.S. table? Probably not…but it’s fascinating to explore this hypothetical border buster of a thought experiment.